우크라이나전은 러시아의 예방전쟁
피터 갈 Peter Gal | 헝가리노동당중앙위원
이전쟁은 미국의 반러전쟁이며 반중전쟁이다. 또한 세계지배를 위한 신자유주의전쟁이다.
첫째, 우리는 러시아와 미국사이에 전략적투쟁을 목격하고있다. 미국과 나토는 수년동안 러시아를 상대로 전쟁을 준비해왔다. 상당한 군사력이 동유럽국가들에 배치됐다. 나토는 우크라이나를 무장시키고 국수주의자들과 우크라이나지도부의 파쇼정책을 지원했다. 몇가지 사실들은 우크라이나가 이미 러시아공격을 위한 준비를 완료한것을 입증한다. 러시아는 군사작전으로 우크라이나의 공격을 예방했다.
둘째, 전쟁의 주요타겟은 중국이다. 바이든은 중국을 가장 큰적으로 간주하고 전면전을 노리고있다. 러시아가 약화되면 중국은 중요한 동맹을 잃는것이다. 그러면 중국의 경제팽창을 억제하고, 중국의 꿈을 파괴하고, 중국특색사회주의건설을 막는것이 쉬워질것이다.
셋째, 미국은 세계지배를 위한 신자유주의의 싸움을 국제적갈등으로 확대시킨다. 미국의 힘이 약화되고있는것은 분명하다. 하지만 세계가 끝없는 갈등과 긴장의 신냉전으로 돌입한다면 미패권주의는 더 연장될것이다.
우리는 국경반대쪽에서 벌어지는 전쟁의 결과에 대해 염려하고있다.
첫째, 헝가리가 러시아에 맞서는 전쟁에 개입될수 있다. 헝가리는 러시아의 반대편에서 2차례 세계전쟁에 참여했다. 우리는 1914 당시 영토의 2/3와 인구절반을 잃었다. 우리는 나머지를 잃는것을 원하지않는다,
둘째, EU(유럽연합)의 제재정책은 경제·정치적자살행위다. 그결과가 극단적인 인플레이션·대량실업·대규모빈곤임을 예견하는것은 어렵지않다.
셋째, 전쟁은 EU의 위기를 악화시킨다. 우리는 EU가 개혁될수 없다고 생각한다. 그것은 환상이다. 우리는 EU민중의 민주적이고 상호 이로운 협력에 기초한 새로운 형태의 통합을 필요로 한다. 우리는 이런 목표를 실현하기 위해서는 거대한 사회적변화가 일어나야한다는것을 알고있다.
우리는 EU와 러시아간 합의를 지지한다. 그가능성은 있다. 러시아는 결코 유럽정복을 원하지않았다. 사실 지난 3세기동안 러시아는 베를린을 3번 점령했다. 하지만 단지 유럽이 러시아를 존중하고 러시아의 안보를 위협하지않도록 보장하기 위해서였다.
그러나 미국은 EU와 러시아사이에 이런 역사적인 합의가 이뤄지는것을 원하지않는다. 미국은 미국의 지배를 받아들이고 자국민중에게 이를 강요할수있는 자들을 지지한다. 전쟁은 서방의 막대한 이윤을 의미한다. 서방은 구식무기들을 처분하고 군수산업체는 새로운 주문을 받게 된다. (우크라이나에서) 전후재건은 미국과 서유럽자본에게 막대한 이윤을 가져다줄것이다.
우크라이나전은 아시아의 미래에도 커다란 영향을 끼친다.
첫째, 가장 분명한 단기적영향은 경제다. 원유·밀·곡물가격이 하늘 높은줄 모르고 치솟고있다. 치솟는 물가는 동남아시아국가들이 팬데믹에서 회복되는것을 방해하며 이는 결국 정치경제적불안의 위험을 높인다.
둘째, 정치적으로 전쟁은 이미 아시아의 정치군사적긴장을 고조시키는 결과를 낳았다. 미국은 일반적으로 중국특색사회주의를 미국과 서방세계에 대한 사회·문명적도전으로 간주하고 이도전을 없애고 싶어한다. 미국은 아시아국가들을 현존하는 군사블록에 통합하고 새로운 블록을 만들기를 원한다.
최근 미국과 남코리아는 상시전투태세를 유지하고 이른바 북의 도발행위에 직면해 긴밀히 협력할것을 약속했다. 양국은 일본과 3자간협력을 강화하고 미남정부간 협력을 넓혀나갈것에 합의했다.
우크라이나전은 현재 지리적으로 유럽에 한정된다. 전쟁이 아시아로 확대되지않더라도 전쟁이 해결책 없이 지속될수록 아시아에 심각한 후과를 가져올 가능성이 커지는것을 이해하는것이 중요하다.
What the actual war in Ukraine means for the people of Europe and Asia
Peter GAL | Hungarian Workers’ Party
Dear comrades, dear friends,
On behalf of the Hungarian Workers’ Party, I would like to thank you for the invitation.
Today’s conference is of immense importance. Political parties and organisations from different continents can discuss what the actual war in Ukraine means for the people of Europe and Asia.
I would like to start with the basic position of our party.
This is the USA’s war against Russia. This is the USA’s war against the People’s Republic of China. This is the war of neoliberalism for world domination.
First, we witness a strategic struggle between Russia and the USA.
The USA and the NATO have been preparing for war against Russia for years. Significant military forces were deployed in Eastern European countries. The NATO armed Ukraine. It supported the nationalist, fascist policies of the Ukrainian leadership.
The West provoked the war. The facts prove that Ukraine has already completed preparations for an attack on Russia. With the military operations, Russia prevented the Ukrainian aggression.
Second, the main target of the war is China. Trump wanted an agreement with China, but on terms dictated by him. China said no to this. Biden considers China the greatest enemy and aims for total war.
If Russia weakens, China loses an important ally and then it will be easier to contain the Chinese economic expansion, to destroy the Chinese dream, to obstruct the construction the socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Third, the USA expends the struggle of neoliberalism for world domination to a global conflict.
It is obvious that the strength of the USA is declining. If the majority of the international community keeps peace and development as the mainstream, the world would come to multipolarity. However, if the world enters a new Cold War with endless conflicts and tensions, the life of US hegemony will be extended,
I am coming from a Central European country, Hungary. We are concerned by the consequences of the war on the other side of our border.
First, Hungary can be involved in a war against Russia. We remember what it means. Hungary participated in two world wars on the side that fought against Russia. We lost two-thirds of the territory of Hungary of 1914 and half of its population. We do not want to lose the rest.
Second, the policy of sanction of the European Union means economic and political suicide. The EU is already not its own master. The EU is just floating on the waves raised by the Americans. It does not dare to go to war, it could not really do that anyway, so it pursues an economic war but, in the process, shoots itself in the foot too. It is not difficult to foresee the consequences: dramatic inflation, mass unemployment, mass poverty.
Third, the war deepens the crisis of the European Union. We think that the EU cannot be reformed. It is an illusion. We need a new type of integration based on the democratic and mutually advantageous cooperation of European people. We are realists: we know great social changes should take place in order to realise this aim.
We support an agreement between the EU and Russia. There are possibilities for that. The Russians never wanted to conquer Europe. Well, over the past three centuries, the Russians have taken Berlin three times, but just to ensure that Europe respects Russia and does not endanger its security.
But America does not want this historic agreement between the EU and Russia to happen. The US supports those who are ready to put the liberal capital’s interests above the interests of European nations. The US supports those who accept America’s domination and are capable of forcing it upon their own people.
The war means enormous profits for the West. They get rid of their old weapons and the military industry gets new orders. The reconstruction after the war will bring huge profits to the American and Western European capital.
The war in Ukraine has huge ramifications for the future of Asia, too.
First, the most obvious short-term impact is on the economy.
Oil, wheat, and corn prices have skyrocketed. Many Southeast Asian countries dependent on these imports, such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore have seen shortages. Rising commodity prices threaten to hinder Southeast Asian countries’ recovery from the pandemic, leading to an increased risk of political and economic instability.
Second, politically, the war has already resulted in rising political and military tension in Asia.
The US used the war in Ukraine to prepare a new war to stop the rise of political and economic influence of China.
The US considers the socialism with Chinese characteristics as a social and civilisational challenge to the US and Western world generally and they want to cancel this challenge.
The US wants to integrate the Asian countries in the existing military blocks and create new ones.
As you know Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu recently declared: “We cannot yet call NATO a partner, but there are increasing talks between Taiwan and NATO. We see potential for more cooperation.”
Japan and South Korea are worried about China and about their territorial sovereignty, and they support the United States in condemning Russia.
Vietnam, India refrained from condemning Russia at the United Nations, and they will not support the US war against Russia.
Recently the US and South Korea committed to maintaining “fight tonight” readiness and close cooperation in the face of the so-called provocative actions by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Both sides agreed to enhance trilateral cooperation with Japan and broader cooperation in the region between the U.S. and ROK governments.
Imperialist forces can use the epidemy in the DPRK to make pressure on the DPRK and to undermine the stability on the Korean peninsula.
The war in Ukraine is currently confined geographically to Europe. Even if it does not spill over onto Asia, it is crucial to understand that the longer it persists without resolution, the greater the chance that this war will have serious consequences for Asia.
The question is: what we can do?
First, we need a new level of political interaction, including conferences, discussion, and common actions. This war concerns people from Paris till Seoul. We support such a cooperation with full heart.
Second, we should coordinate our actions on the internet. Unfortunately, we cannot counterbalance the West media but we should work together in explaining our public opinion the reality and the truth about the war. We need to start it not tomorrow but today!
Third, we support the Global Security Initiative proposed by President Xi Jinping at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2022 in Boao.
Thank you for your attention.
